← Hobby Maker Store Championship！
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Hobby Maker Store Championship！
decks
2
(14.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
5-4-3
overall winrate
54.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.5%
avg ELO +0.7 per match
expected value
54.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1257
· median 1257
· range 1224–1289
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1064
Q1 1174
Q3 1288
1425
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 21.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.9% | +8.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 14.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.0% | +3.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.9% | +11.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.3 |
| Water Genbu | 7.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.7% | -6.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.7% | -6.0 |
| Wind Allies | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 7.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
