EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 卡庫店家冠軍賽.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Fractal | 2 | 8.7% | 10 | 70.0% | 58.7% | 55.8% | 53.4% | 1403 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 70.0% | 62.2% | 55.0% | 55.6% | 1307 | — |
| 3 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 70.0% | 53.1% | 53.3% | 50.6% | 1523 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 2 | 8.7% | 10 | 55.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | 51.5% | 1307 | — |
| 5 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 60.6% | 52.5% | 53.6% | 1293 | — |
| 6 | Water Genbu | 1 | 4.3% | 4 | 62.5% | 44.5% | 52.0% | 47.5% | 1409 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 61.5% | 51.4% | 54.0% | 1303 | — |
| 8 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 8.7% | 10 | 55.0% | 62.0% | 50.6% | 53.5% | 1256 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 50.0% | 46.4% | 50.0% | 48.2% | 1307 | — |
| 10 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 8.7% | 9 | 50.0% | 52.8% | 49.4% | 50.9% | 1260 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Water Allies | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 50.0% | 43.5% | 48.7% | 46.4% | 1352 | — |
| 12 | Fire Oblation | 2 | 8.7% | 10 | 50.0% | 45.7% | 48.3% | 47.3% | 1343 | — |
| 13 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 30.0% | 45.3% | 47.5% | 49.4% | 1453 | ↑ top |
| 14 | Fire Exia | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 49.4% | 47.5% | 49.8% | 1147 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Wind Astra Cleric | 2 | 8.7% | 9 | 27.8% | 34.3% | 44.0% | 43.8% | 1218 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 4.3% | 4 | 25.0% | 43.8% | 43.3% | 45.9% | 1174 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 4.3% | 4 | 0.0% | 28.9% | 40.0% | 41.7% | 1282 | — |