EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 美樂地 GA店家冠軍賽20260131.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 90.0% | 58.9% | 59.0% | 54.9% | 1591 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 90.0% | 66.8% | 58.6% | 55.5% | 1393 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Oblation | 2 | 9.1% | 8 | 68.8% | 62.9% | 56.9% | 56.1% | 1319 | — |
| 4 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 70.0% | 64.2% | 56.7% | 57.1% | 1297 | — |
| 5 | Fire Crux Mage | 3 | 13.6% | 13 | 57.7% | 51.2% | 55.0% | 52.7% | 1312 | — |
| 6 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 2 | 9.1% | 10 | 55.0% | 47.6% | 53.6% | 51.7% | 1374 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 40.0% | 52.7% | 50.7% | 54.2% | 1322 | — |
| 8 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 40.0% | 37.8% | 50.0% | 46.4% | 1386 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 4.5% | 4 | 37.5% | 41.1% | 48.7% | 47.4% | 1282 | — |
| 10 | Wind Seiryuu | 3 | 13.6% | 14 | 32.1% | 39.4% | 45.6% | 46.1% | 1263 | — |
| 11 | Fire Suzaku | 2 | 9.1% | 7 | 42.9% | 51.1% | 45.0% | 47.3% | 1221 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Water Allies | 1 | 4.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 45.8% | 44.0% | 45.7% | 1256 | — |
| 13 | Water Aetherwing | 3 | 13.6% | 12 | 25.0% | 41.4% | 40.6% | 45.4% | 1216 | ↓ low |