← Store Championship PTM @gamestimetorino
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Championship PTM @gamestimetorino.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 18.2% | 7 | 100.0% | 75.9% | 62.2% | 59.9% | 1309 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 59.1% | 50.0% | 53.6% | 1093 | ↓ low |
| 3 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 56.1% | 50.0% | 53.3% | 1121 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Water Fractal | 1 | 9.1% | 6 | 50.0% | 45.6% | 47.8% | 46.4% | 1272 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 18.2% | 7 | 50.0% | 47.5% | 47.7% | 47.2% | 1230 | — |
| 6 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 47.8% | 46.7% | 46.4% | 1222 | — |
| 7 | Fire Seiryuu | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 25.0% | 39.1% | 43.3% | 44.4% | 1160 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 9.1% | 3 | 16.7% | 35.6% | 42.5% | 43.1% | 1173 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 1 | 9.1% | 3 | 0.0% | 31.6% | 40.0% | 41.9% | 1143 | ↓ low |