Fire Crux MageTier 2
at 元氣滿屋 PTM GA 店冠賽
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Arcane | 13.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.0% | -5.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 13.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.7 |
| Water Fractal | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Palvor Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nimue, Cursed Touch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Yuan Shao, Crown General | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Protect Her At All Costs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flared Iridescence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |