Water FractalTier 2
at 元氣滿屋 PTM GA 店冠賽
decks
1
(6.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-2-1
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.0%
avg ELO -0.7 per match
expected value
48.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1348
· median 1348
· range 1348–1348
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1068
Q1 1233
Q3 1448
1618
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Wind Arcane | 13.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +20.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 13.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
