EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Colossal Cards PTM Store Champs. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Fire Exia Jin

52.5%

11.1% share · 4 matches

11.1% share · 6 matches

11.1% share · 6 matches

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Wind Seiryuu	1	11.1%	6	75.0%	55.9%	57.3%	53.9%	1392	↑ top
2	Fire Exia Jin	1	11.1%	4	62.5%	58.8%	52.5%	54.0%	1276	↑ top
3	Water Aetherwing	1	11.1%	6	58.3%	62.8%	52.0%	56.0%	1194	—
4	Wind Shadowstrike	2	22.2%	9	50.0%	43.3%	50.3%	47.5%	1238	—
5	Water Luxem Assassin	1	11.1%	4	50.0%	43.4%	50.0%	47.4%	1330	↑ top
6	Water Genbu	1	11.1%	3	33.3%	45.3%	47.5%	48.3%	1123	↓ low
7	Fire Suzaku	1	11.1%	5	30.0%	47.1%	44.0%	47.7%	1205	—
8	Wind Luxem Assassin	1	11.1%	3	16.7%	41.6%	43.3%	46.1%	1100	↓ low