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Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at The Game Center Narellan - PTM Store Champs
decks
1
(5.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
5-2-1
overall winrate
68.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.7%
avg ELO +2.3 per match
expected value
53.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1546
· median 1546
· range 1546–1546
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1083
Q1 1185
Q3 1439
1702
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 10.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.4% | -6.3 |
| Arcane | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
| Slimes | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.4 |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 5.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 49.8% | -0.2 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
