← The Game Center Narellan - PTM Store Champs
Water FractalTier 1
at The Game Center Narellan - PTM Store Champs
decks
1
(5.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-2-0
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.2%
avg ELO +5.3 per match
expected value
54.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1223
· median 1223
· range 1223–1223
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1083
Q1 1185
Q3 1439
1702
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 10.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Water Genbu | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.6 |
| Arcane | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Fire Suited | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.0% | +23.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.5 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
