← Card Merchant Hamilton Phantom Monarchs Store Championships

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Card Merchant Hamilton Phantom Monarchs Store Championships. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Suzaku 1 6.7% 4 75.0% 55.9% 56.0% 52.9% 1395 ↑ top
2 Fire Umbra Guardian 3 20.0% 14 67.9% 62.9% 55.4% 54.9% 1322
3 Water Allies 1 6.7% 4 50.0% 45.6% 53.3% 50.3% 1275
4 Wind Astra Cleric 1 6.7% 3 33.3% 43.9% 52.0% 50.9% 1321
5 Water Astra Ranger 1 6.7% 4 50.0% 59.5% 50.0% 53.8% 1198 ↓ low
6 Water Fractal 1 6.7% 6 50.0% 46.5% 48.1% 46.8% 1349 ↑ top
7 Fire Crux Lorraine 2 13.3% 9 50.0% 55.8% 47.2% 50.6% 1210 ↓ low
8 Fire Suited 1 6.7% 2 25.0% 35.9% 45.0% 41.5% 1474 ↑ top
9 Wind Seiryuu 1 6.7% 4 37.5% 35.8% 44.3% 41.3% 1339
10 Fire Aetherwing 1 6.7% 3 33.3% 55.2% 44.0% 50.7% 1180 ↓ low
11 Water Luxem Assassin 1 6.7% 4 50.0% 43.5% 44.0% 41.4% 1427 ↑ top
12 Wind Shadowstrike 1 6.7% 3 0.0% 35.0% 40.0% 42.8% 1100 ↓ low