Fire AggroTier 1
at 新奇玩具 店冠賽
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 18.2% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.8% | +3.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 9.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.0% | +8.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Water Fractal | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.8% | -3.1 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 41 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 41 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Mortal Ambition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mote Sear | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Molten Echo | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memorite Vassal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Surging Bolt | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flickering Afterglow | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Infernal Vessel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tweedledum, Rattled Dancer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |