Fire OblationTier 1
at 新奇玩具 店冠賽
decks
2
(18.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
7-2-1
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.3%
avg ELO +1.9 per match
expected value
56.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1465
· median 1465
· range 1396–1535
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1102
Q1 1199
Q3 1403
1535
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 27.3% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.2% | -3.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 9.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.0% | +3.0 |
| Wind Arcane | 9.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 54.9% | +4.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
