Fire Crux MageTier 1
at PTM Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 15.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.3% | -4.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 10.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.8% | -9.8 |
| Water Allies | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 54.3% | +2.8 |
| Fire Suited | 5.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -2.2 |
| Slimes | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Water Fractal | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Wind Arcane | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.2% | -6.0 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 16 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 16 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sacred Engulfment | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Alkahest | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nimue, Cursed Touch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flared Iridescence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |