Water AlliesTier 2
at PTM Store Championship
decks
2
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
3-6-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.8%
avg ELO -2.4 per match
expected value
44.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1226
· median 1226
· range 1126–1327
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1126
Q1 1249
Q3 1411
1607
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 15.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 15.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.6% | -5.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.4 |
| Fire Suited | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.0 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Water Fractal | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +14.0 |
| Wind Arcane | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
