EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 11.1% | 2 | 100.0% | 65.2% | 60.0% | 59.1% | 1208 | — |
| 2 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 100.0% | 58.4% | 60.0% | 53.9% | 1567 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 66.7% | 56.5% | 55.0% | 53.8% | 1323 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Fractal | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 66.7% | 58.1% | 55.0% | 55.4% | 1265 | — |
| 5 | Water Genbu | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 66.7% | 55.5% | 55.0% | 53.9% | 1192 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Fire Umbra Alice | 2 | 22.2% | 6 | 16.7% | 34.9% | 43.3% | 45.0% | 1199 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Dawn of Ashes | 1 | 11.1% | 2 | 0.0% | 39.9% | 40.0% | 43.9% | 1187 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 11.1% | 2 | 0.0% | 36.9% | 40.0% | 42.4% | 1149 | ↓ low |