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Horse and TaxesTier 1
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decks
1
(5.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
4-0-1
overall winrate
90.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
74.0%
avg ELO +13.8 per match
expected value
57.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
57.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1408
· median 1408
· range 1408–1408
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1128
Q1 1166
Q3 1343
1425
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.3 |
| Water Genbu | 10.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +3.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.3% | +19.6 |
| Water Tera Mage | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Horse and Taxes decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
