Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Cardart PTM Store Champs
decks
2
(8.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
2-6-2
overall winrate
30.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.7%
avg ELO -4.6 per match
expected value
45.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1317
· median 1317
· range 1223–1410
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1079
Q1 1257
Q3 1474
1678
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 12.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 44.7% | -5.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.6 |
| Water Fractal | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 4.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -2.9 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -7.9 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 4.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -3.7 |
| Water Diana | 4.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -0.7 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
