Water FractalTier 1
at Cardart PTM Store Champs
decks
2
(8.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
5-1-1
overall winrate
78.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
61.1%
avg ELO +5.6 per match
expected value
55.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1548
· median 1548
· range 1417–1678
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1079
Q1 1257
Q3 1474
1678
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 12.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.0% | +5.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
