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Fire AggroTier 2
at Scry Games PTM Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 11.6% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 59.4% | +6.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.4% | -9.2 |
| Water Fractal | 9.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.0% | -4.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 7.0% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 38.2% | -6.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.3% | -10.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 76.0% | +25.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.4 |
| Fire Suited | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.8 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -10.0 |
| Water Slimes | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.5% | -2.3 |
| Water Zander | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.5 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Wind Byakko | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.9 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.8 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 48 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 48 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vermilion Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ash Filcher | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grande Aiguille | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Conflagrative Trounce | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewing Fowl | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Relic of Dancing Embers | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Surging Bolt | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reveal the Hidden | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Oneiric Key | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tweedledum, Rattled Dancer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |