← Scry Games PTM Store Championship
Wind AlliesTier 2
at Scry Games PTM Store Championship
decks
5
(11.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
22
7-15-0
overall winrate
31.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.2%
avg ELO -1.1 per match
expected value
42.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1085
· median 1061
· range 936–1233
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
936
Q1 1142
Q3 1341
1668
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
60% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 11.6% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 40.6% | -6.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 9.3% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 65.2% | +9.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 7.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.6% | -9.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
| Fire Suited | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.7 |
| Water Slimes | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.2% | -1.3 |
| Water Zander | 2.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.9% | +4.7 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.1% | -4.7 |
| Wind Byakko | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.9% | +13.4 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Dream Fairy, Aesan Protector, Eternal Directive. Losers more often ran: Deflecting Edge, Stalwart Shieldmate, Unbroken Mustang.
Dream Fairy
Winning decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Aesan Protector
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Eternal Directive
Winning decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Longtail Grovesward
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Lurking Assailant
Winning decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Unwelcome Fortune
Winning decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Deflecting Edge
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Stalwart Shieldmate
Losing decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Unbroken Mustang
Losing decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Rallied Advance
Losing decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
winning decks 1.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Trained Hawk
Losing decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Show all 80 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 60 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deflecting Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Armored Valkyrie | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Manufacture Cell | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Swift Recruit | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eternal Directive | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Longtail Grovesward | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vanguard's Reversal | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Unwelcome Fortune | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Charged Mannequin | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Windspire Crest | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Rallied Advance | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Windmill Engineer | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Andronika, Eternal Herald | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Second Wind | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trained Hawk | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unrelenting Warden | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Take Point | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rebounding Gust | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dilu, Auspicious Charger | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reconnaissance Scout | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flash Grenade | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Perse, Relentless Raptor | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Captain Archer | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Displace | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liu Bei, Oathkeeper | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ranger Strides | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blastshot Pump | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Keen Huntress | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Purifying Thurible | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tasershot | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veiled Dash | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Emerald Pistol | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Haunt Reminiscence | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Oath of the Sakura | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbulent Bullet | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mad Hatter, Morose Heritor | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Winbless Rangefinder | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Skirting Step | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Windrider Vanguard | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Mercurial Heart | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |