Fire Crux MageTier 2
at AJITO Regional
decks
2
(3.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
6-4-1
overall winrate
59.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.5%
avg ELO +3.7 per match
expected value
53.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1363
· median 1363
· range 1324–1403
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1062
Q1 1173
Q3 1393
1688
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.6% | +2.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 57.9% | +7.6 |
| Water Fractal | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.8% | -1.7 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Water Oblation | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Arisanna | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ravishing Mill | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
