Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at AJITO Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.2% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 48.5% | -0.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.8% | +5.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.9% | -3.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Water Oblation | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.5 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Wind Astra Arisanna | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ravishing Mill | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 16 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 16 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fairy Whispers | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Abnegation | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Reclaim | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Umbra Sight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Verdigris Decree | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |