Water AetherwingTier 1
at AJITO Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.2% | 6 | 4-1-1 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 63.9% | +7.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.2% | -5.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.1% | -14.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.5 |
| Water Fractal | 3.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.7% | +2.6 |
| Water Genbu | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.6% | -3.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.3 |
| Fire Suited | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Oblation | 1.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.1% | +4.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.5 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 1.9% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.0% | +5.8 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Arisanna | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Wind Ciel | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.7 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ravishing Mill | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -1.2 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 10 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 10 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Refreshing Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undercurrent Vantage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Calibration | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peer Beyond | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drown in Aether | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Take Aim | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Aetherwing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |