EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at PTM Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 22.2% | 11 | 81.8% | 60.7% | 61.1% | 55.4% | 1374 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 11.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 54.0% | 51.4% | 51.4% | 1325 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 46.3% | 50.0% | 47.6% | 1258 | — |
| 4 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 11.1% | 5 | 40.0% | 52.8% | 48.8% | 53.1% | 1215 | — |
| 5 | Water Genbu | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 45.9% | 45.0% | 47.5% | 1215 | — |
| 6 | Fire Suited | 2 | 22.2% | 5 | 20.0% | 41.6% | 42.7% | 46.2% | 1099 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Water Chess | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 0.0% | 37.5% | 40.0% | 43.6% | 1056 | ↓ low |