← Hard Brick Games Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Hard Brick Games Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Allies | 1 | 10.0% | 7 | 78.6% | 54.9% | 56.1% | 50.9% | 1414 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 10.0% | 7 | 78.6% | 54.9% | 56.1% | 50.9% | 1414 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 10.0% | 6 | 58.3% | 47.2% | 52.8% | 49.8% | 1393 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 10.0% | 7 | 57.1% | 52.4% | 51.3% | 50.6% | 1270 | — |
| 5 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 10.0% | 8 | 43.8% | 53.4% | 51.0% | 52.9% | 1220 | — |
| 6 | Water Fractal | 1 | 10.0% | 7 | 50.0% | 55.7% | 50.0% | 52.0% | 1206 | — |
| 7 | Wind Allies | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 40.0% | 50.6% | 50.0% | 52.1% | 1122 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 40.0% | 50.6% | 50.0% | 52.1% | 1122 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 20.0% | 15 | 46.7% | 48.6% | 48.8% | 49.2% | 1241 | — |
| 10 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 10.0% | 7 | 50.0% | 54.3% | 48.8% | 50.2% | 1232 | — |
| 11 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 10.0% | 6 | 0.0% | 26.0% | 37.8% | 40.3% | 1096 | ↓ low |