EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 100.0% | 70.4% | 62.7% | 60.8% | 1570 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 62.5% | 49.4% | 52.0% | 49.2% | 1428 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Genbu | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 51.1% | 52.0% | 52.5% | 1275 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Water Allies | 2 | 15.4% | 5 | 40.0% | 38.3% | 50.7% | 47.3% | 1385 | — |
| 5 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 42.1% | 50.0% | 46.1% | 1412 | — |
| 6 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 15.4% | 8 | 56.2% | 58.6% | 50.0% | 52.3% | 1310 | — |
| 7 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 15.4% | 6 | 50.0% | 39.2% | 50.0% | 46.6% | 1507 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 56.9% | 48.0% | 50.7% | 1288 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 25.0% | 49.8% | 46.7% | 51.2% | 1184 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Chess | 1 | 7.7% | 3 | 0.0% | 43.3% | 40.0% | 46.9% | 1102 | ↓ low |