← Ethereal Sanctum PTM Store Championship
Water FractalTier 2
at Ethereal Sanctum PTM Store Championship
decks
2
(10.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
2-5-2
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.8%
avg ELO -1.0 per match
expected value
43.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1179
· median 1179
· range 1146–1212
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1094
Q1 1255
Q3 1422
1532
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 15.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.8% | -9.8 |
| Water Genbu | 10.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.4% | -4.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 48.4% | -1.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.7 |
| Wind Byakko | 5.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -3.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.5% | +20.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
