← Ethereal Sanctum PTM Store Championship
Water GenbuTier 1
at Ethereal Sanctum PTM Store Championship
decks
2
(10.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
6-4-0
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.1%
avg ELO -4.9 per match
expected value
50.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1480
· median 1480
· range 1472–1488
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1094
Q1 1255
Q3 1422
1532
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 15.8% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 18.6% | -20.1 |
| Water Fractal | 10.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.6% | +4.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.7 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.7% | +2.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.5 |
| Wind Byakko | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.4 |
