Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at 20260307 貓腳印-桃園店 PTM 店冠賽
decks
2
(6.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
4-6-0
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.3%
avg ELO +2.8 per match
expected value
46.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1209
· median 1209
· range 1140–1277
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1118
Q1 1255
Q3 1415
1591
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 16.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.2% | -4.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 13.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 60.2% | +7.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 13.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.8 |
| Water Genbu | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 67.7% | +28.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | +20.8 |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.5 |
| Wind Arcane | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.8 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
