Water AetherwingTier 1
at 20260307 貓腳印-桃園店 PTM 店冠賽
decks
4
(13.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
22
13-7-2
overall winrate
63.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
63.8%
avg ELO +5.2 per match
expected value
52.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1337
· median 1303
· range 1253–1491
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1118
Q1 1255
Q3 1415
1591
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 16.7% | 5 | 0-3-2 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 40.4% | -5.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 13.3% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 65.6% | +10.0 |
| Water Genbu | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 62.3% | +9.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.8% | +6.6 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.6% | +21.8 |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
