Water GenbuTier 1
at 20260307 貓腳印-桃園店 PTM 店冠賽
decks
3
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
8-5-3
overall winrate
59.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
61.9%
avg ELO +4.8 per match
expected value
52.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1297
· median 1284
· range 1173–1435
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1118
Q1 1255
Q3 1415
1591
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 16.7% | 7 | 5-1-1 | 78.6% | 68.2% | 71.7% | +10.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 13.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.3% | -3.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 13.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.0% | +24.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.7% | -3.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Genbu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
