Fire AggroTier 2
at Fortress PTM StoreChamps
decks
2
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
3-7-0
overall winrate
30.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
28.4%
avg ELO -9.7 per match
expected value
44.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1307
· median 1307
· range 1275–1339
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1157
Q1 1238
Q3 1356
1630
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.4% | -7.3 |
| Water Astra Diana | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.7 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.8 |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.4% | -7.3 |
| Water Tera Mage | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
