Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Fortress PTM StoreChamps
decks
1
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-1-2
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.6%
avg ELO +4.9 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1182
· median 1182
· range 1182–1182
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1157
Q1 1238
Q3 1356
1630
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.2% | +13.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Slimes | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Water Allies | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
