Water FractalTier 2
at Fortress PTM StoreChamps
decks
1
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-4-0
overall winrate
20.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.4%
avg ELO -5.5 per match
expected value
44.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1316
· median 1316
· range 1316–1316
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1157
Q1 1238
Q3 1356
1630
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +14.0 |
| Water Allies | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
| Water Neos | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.2 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
