← Wilczek - Store Championships - PTM - 01/03/2026
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Wilczek - Store Championships - PTM - 01/03/2026
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -4.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 71.0% | +20.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -1.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -19.1 |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 4.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Wind Arcane | 4.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +2.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.7% | -11.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.7% | +2.6 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 36 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 36 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peaceful Reunion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Accursed Strength | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost Providence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Overpowering Defense | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undeniable Truth | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamme Sorcel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profane Bindings | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |