← Wilczek - Store Championships - PTM - 01/03/2026
Water AlliesTier 1
at Wilczek - Store Championships - PTM - 01/03/2026
decks
1
(4.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
4-3-0
overall winrate
57.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.7%
avg ELO +4.9 per match
expected value
51.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1244
· median 1244
· range 1244–1244
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
983
Q1 1146
Q3 1359
1510
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.8% | +2.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Fire Exia | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.4% | +21.5 |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.4% | -5.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
