← Saturday Phantom Monarchs Store Champs

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Saturday Phantom Monarchs Store Champs. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Arcane 1 9.1% 6 91.7% 66.0% 62.0% 57.5% 1405 ↑ top
2 Water Aetherwing 1 9.1% 5 70.0% 66.3% 56.1% 58.7% 1298
3 Wind Astra Cleric 1 9.1% 5 60.0% 50.0% 53.3% 50.7% 1404 ↑ top
4 Fire Umbra Guardian 2 18.2% 8 50.0% 50.2% 51.2% 51.2% 1374 ↑ top
5 Wind Razorgale 1 9.1% 4 50.0% 42.0% 50.0% 46.8% 1381 ↑ top
6 Wind Seiryuu 1 9.1% 4 50.0% 43.1% 48.0% 45.8% 1368 ↑ top
7 Wind Shadowstrike 1 9.1% 4 50.0% 47.6% 48.0% 47.2% 1317
8 Slimes 1 9.1% 4 25.0% 50.5% 44.0% 49.2% 1029 ↓ low
9 Fire Aetherwing 1 9.1% 3 0.0% 40.4% 40.0% 45.5% 1173 ↓ low
10 Water Slimes 1 9.1% 3 0.0% 34.7% 40.0% 42.8% 1151 ↓ low