Water AetherwingTier 1
at Store Championship
decks
1
(5.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
7-0-0
overall winrate
100.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
63.8%
avg ELO +6.9 per match
expected value
62.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1632
· median 1632
· range 1632–1632
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1004
Q1 1200
Q3 1435
1632
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 17.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.4% | +7.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 17.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 11.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.7% | +2.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +1.0 |
| Water Fractal | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Alice | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.1% | +12.5 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Aetherwing decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
