Water GenbuTier 1
at Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 17.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -1.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 11.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.7% | +10.3 |
| Horse and Taxes | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.6% | -7.1 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +19.0 |
| Water Umbra Alice | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.3% | +3.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.9% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 43.4% | -4.2 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Genbu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 14 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 14 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frozen Dismissal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |