Water Crux MerlinTier 2
at Store Championship
decks
1
(5.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
0-3-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.6%
avg ELO -5.5 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1004
· median 1004
· range 1004–1004
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1004
Q1 1200
Q3 1435
1632
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 17.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 17.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 11.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.2% | -6.1 |
| Horse and Taxes | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.4% | -1.0 |
| Water Fractal | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Alice | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Merlin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
