EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 貓腳印東門店ptm店家冠軍賽.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 5.6% | 8 | 68.8% | 59.5% | 54.4% | 53.6% | 1379 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Aetherwing | 2 | 11.1% | 14 | 67.9% | 57.0% | 54.3% | 52.2% | 1398 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 60.0% | 57.6% | 52.0% | 52.7% | 1240 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 11.1% | 11 | 59.1% | 50.9% | 51.8% | 50.4% | 1394 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 5.6% | 6 | 58.3% | 57.1% | 51.7% | 52.6% | 1311 | — |
| 6 | Wind Allies | 1 | 5.6% | 6 | 58.3% | 55.6% | 51.2% | 51.6% | 1369 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Exia | 1 | 5.6% | 2 | 50.0% | 45.1% | 50.0% | 47.0% | 1409 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Wind Alice | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 50.0% | 38.2% | 50.0% | 45.6% | 1362 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 5.6% | 7 | 57.1% | 59.5% | 49.4% | 52.5% | 1307 | — |
| 10 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 40.0% | 46.7% | 48.6% | 48.6% | 1257 | — |
| 11 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 5.6% | 6 | 50.0% | 55.3% | 48.6% | 51.1% | 1201 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 5.6% | 3 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.7% | 46.7% | 1256 | — |
| 13 | Water Genbu | 1 | 5.6% | 4 | 25.0% | 45.5% | 43.3% | 47.3% | 1165 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 20.0% | 28.9% | 43.3% | 42.6% | 1277 | — |
| 15 | Fire Tera Mage | 1 | 5.6% | 4 | 0.0% | 38.8% | 40.0% | 45.4% | 996 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 5.6% | 3 | 0.0% | 39.3% | 40.0% | 45.8% | 1132 | ↓ low |