← Yeti Gaming In-Person Regional 4/6/2024
Water AlliesTier 1
at Yeti Gaming In-Person Regional 4/6/2024
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 14.3% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 60.3% | +6.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.5% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 67.8% | +13.3 |
| Fire Erupting | 9.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +1.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.5% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 30.7% | -12.3 |
| Wind Allies | 9.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 60.4% | +10.0 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 4.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.4 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.2 |
| Wind Beast | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Wind Vanitas | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 31 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 31 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Esteemed Knight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prototype Pistol | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eye of Argus | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Umbral Tithe | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blastshot Pump | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Keen Huntress | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stillwater Patrol | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shadow's Twin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Duskstalker | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeking Shot | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Deadly Duelist | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backstep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cascading Round | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Corhazi's Chosen | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drowned Cut | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |