← Good Games Canberra City Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
Water GenbuTier 1
at Good Games Canberra City Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
decks
1
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
4-1-0
overall winrate
80.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.4%
avg ELO +2.6 per match
expected value
58.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1456
· median 1456
· range 1456–1456
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1051
Q1 1152
Q3 1353
1456
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 20.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.6% | +7.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 20.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.7 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.3 |
| Wind Arcane Rai | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.7 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Genbu decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
