← Good Games Canberra City Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at Good Games Canberra City Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 20.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -0.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 48.8% | -1.2 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 10.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -2.3 |
| Water Allies | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.8 |
| Water Genbu | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane Rai | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 52 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 52 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nocturnal Blossom | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Calming Breeze | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisonous Apple | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Siphoning Fractal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shadeblood Coating | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Windwalker Boots | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Mantle | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undeniable Truth | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bushwhack Bandit | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Final Stroke | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Imperial Spy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Winbless Lookout | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Windmill Engineer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Necklace of Foresight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Purifying Thurible | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lost Providence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Galewhisper Rogue | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shadowstrike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Possessed Remnant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Regret | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Break Apart | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Betraying Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shadow's Claw | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire Headhunter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Temporal Spectrometer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Strategic Planning | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Suffocating Miasma | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |