← Phantom Monarchs Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Phantom Monarchs Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Water Aetherwing 1 10.0% 8 81.2% 58.0% 57.3% 52.9% 1407 ↑ top
2 Water Allies 1 10.0% 7 71.4% 58.9% 56.0% 53.7% 1378 ↑ top
3 Water Ravishing Mill 1 10.0% 7 71.4% 58.9% 56.0% 53.7% 1378 ↑ top
4 Wind Seiryuu 1 10.0% 8 68.8% 52.5% 54.4% 50.7% 1453 ↑ top
5 Wind Umbra Ranger 1 10.0% 7 42.9% 56.0% 48.6% 52.2% 1250
6 Wind Allies 2 20.0% 9 44.4% 53.0% 48.3% 50.9% 1206 ↓ low
7 Wind Wakeup Combo 1 10.0% 5 40.0% 52.6% 48.0% 50.9% 1203 ↓ low
8 Fire Exia 1 10.0% 5 30.0% 40.5% 46.7% 46.7% 1301
9 Fire Aetherwing 1 10.0% 4 25.0% 44.3% 44.0% 46.5% 1161 ↓ low
10 Fire Umbra Guardian 1 10.0% 5 20.0% 26.3% 44.0% 40.3% 1340 ↑ top
11 Fire Crux Lorraine 1 10.0% 5 10.0% 38.2% 40.7% 45.5% 1065 ↓ low