Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at GOH STORE CHAMP
decks
1
(5.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
4-2-0
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
61.1%
avg ELO +5.9 per match
expected value
54.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1482
· median 1482
· range 1482–1482
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1032
Q1 1311
Q3 1471
1532
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 15.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 15.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.5% | +16.8 |
| Water Genbu | 15.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Water Fractal | 10.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.8 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
