Water GenbuTier 1
at GOH STORE CHAMP
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 15.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -3.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 15.8% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 54.7% | +3.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 10.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.6 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.1% | +6.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 5.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.8% | +1.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Genbu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 14 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 14 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resonating Fugue | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Conniving Plans | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |