Water FractalTier 2
at GOH STORE CHAMP
decks
2
(10.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
2-5-0
overall winrate
28.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.2%
avg ELO -5.4 per match
expected value
46.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1282
· median 1282
· range 1186–1378
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1032
Q1 1311
Q3 1471
1532
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 15.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +7.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 15.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Water Genbu | 15.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Wind Arcane | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
