← Common Ground Games PTM Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Common Ground Games PTM Store Championship .
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 5.3% | 7 | 92.9% | 62.5% | 59.8% | 55.1% | 1425 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 5.3% | 7 | 78.6% | 59.8% | 57.7% | 54.1% | 1607 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Genbu | 1 | 5.3% | 4 | 75.0% | 56.2% | 56.0% | 54.0% | 1578 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 5.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 57.5% | 54.7% | 54.1% | 1349 | — |
| 5 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 5.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 45.5% | 54.3% | 51.5% | 1278 | — |
| 6 | Water Fractal | 3 | 15.8% | 8 | 62.5% | 54.3% | 52.9% | 51.5% | 1358 | — |
| 7 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 5.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 51.7% | 50.0% | 50.8% | 1339 | — |
| 8 | Wind Byakko | 1 | 5.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 59.3% | 50.0% | 54.9% | 1338 | — |
| 9 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 10.5% | 8 | 37.5% | 43.0% | 47.1% | 47.8% | 1339 | — |
| 10 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 5.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 52.9% | 46.7% | 48.4% | 1299 | — |
| 11 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 5.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 50.4% | 45.7% | 46.9% | 1323 | — |
| 12 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 5.3% | 4 | 25.0% | 42.5% | 42.9% | 46.2% | 1231 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 5.3% | 2 | 0.0% | 35.6% | 40.0% | 41.4% | 1106 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Fire Suited | 1 | 5.3% | 2 | 0.0% | 39.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | 1191 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Water Allies | 1 | 5.3% | 3 | 0.0% | 36.3% | 40.0% | 43.3% | 1126 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Wind Allies | 1 | 5.3% | 2 | 0.0% | 41.6% | 40.0% | 45.0% | 1303 | — |
| 17 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 5.3% | 2 | 0.0% | 41.6% | 40.0% | 45.0% | 1303 | — |