Fire AggroTier 1
at Store Championship Marzo
decks
1
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-1-2
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.7%
avg ELO +2.7 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1211
· median 1211
· range 1211–1211
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1115
Q1 1161
Q3 1262
1278
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 22.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.6 |
| Fire Kongming | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 11.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +2.2 |
| Water Crux Mage | 11.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +2.2 |
| Wind Chess | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Aggro decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
